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Jarosław Supłacz
Education:
1993-1998
University of Finance and Banking in Warsaw, MA in Economics. The
master's thesis: "Future of the banking system in Poland. Universal
banks or special?" has graded on the best mark.
1991-1992 Physics student at the Warsaw University
Secondary school.
1st place
in the Regional Mathematics Olympiad and 2nd place in the
Regional Physics Olympiad (the Regional Olympiads were the highest stage
of competition available, each taking part in one of the 49 former
Polish regions).
Work:
1998-2000 I had a job with the
Polish Oil Concern PKN Orlen S.A. I worked there until the situation
within the company changed from a market-oriented joint stock company
into a group ruled by political impulses. I used to prepare PLN/USD
exchange rate forecasts and have foreseen large FX movements in the
quotations. After my employment they implemented a strategy of not
taking any positions, which I consider quite self-contradictory:
abstaining from transactions is a currency market decision as well as
concluding a transaction.
1992-1993 A position dealing
with preparing a financial and marketing system for Invest Bank. One of
the most appreciable results was the market share in vehicle loans
soaring from 0 to 70% (around 30,000 individual loan agreements) in just
half a year. The bank strategy and design of the whole product range
prepared by my team proved to be both the largest marketing and PR
campaign in Poland in 1993 and the first big marketing action dealing
with financial products in the domestic market. A comprehensive Polish
Car Society was established, providing the members not only with vehicle
loans, but also discounts and promotions with affiliated companies,
including car dealerships, insurance companies, post offices, petrol
stations, garages and others. |
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In addition, some
of my forecasts concerning the securities markets are worth mentioning.
In 1994, I foresaw a slump on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
The report was
published in the press thanks to financing on part of one of the
investors.
In November and December 2000, my weekly
forecasts concerning stock market indexes (mainly WIG20 and NASDAQ, the
former one related to the Warsaw Stock Exchange) appeared on the
pl.biznes.wgpw newsgroup. The accuracy proved to be good, and the
forecasts were based both on technical analysis, including Elliott and
Fibonacci methods, and knowledge about differences between markets,
business cycles, financial policies and various countries.
The
original report regarding ITI IPO was developed in 2002. The ITI
Holdings (TMT branch) wanted to obtain 400m Euro by going public, yet
the offering was cancelled due to small number of shares available for
subscription. My report about ITI was read by staff in Polish investment
banks and pension funds and as a consequence the presidents of pension
funds (among them the CU OFE, being the largest pension fund in the
Polish market) changed their formerly rosy opinions about the IPO. The
report itself is available under
the
link, unfortunately only in Polish. I was interviewed many times
concerning the ITI IPO, including an interview appearing on the first
page of the financial newspaper “Law and Economy”.
I compiled a report dealing with the HOOP S.A. IPO in 2003. A quotation
from the www.bankrupt.com service reads: “Based in Warsaw, Poland, Hoop
S.A. produces fruit-flavored carbonated beverages, cola, and mineral
water. Its original schedule for an IPO was foiled after Jaroslaw
Suplacz, an independent analyst, published a report via the Internet
valuing the company at less than PLN 5 per share, well below other
analysts' expectations of PLN 26 per share. He also suggested that
Hoop's existing shareholders might be guilty of stripping the company of
assets, and that the company was on the verge of bankruptcy.” Articles
about my report hit first pages of all the Polish financial newspapers,
with the HOOP IPO being the largest on the Polish market in 2003.
Here is the
link to a chart with HOOP quotations.
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